Well, Frederik I was born in october 1471, and removing him (Dorothea perhaps miscarries?) or letting him be born a girl would certainly be a big butterfly, since it means that all of Slesvig-Holstein remains with John once Christian I dies. If butterflies are kept at a minimum and we eventually see Christian II come to power, then it also removes a huge thorn in his side. Only a few days after F1’s birth, Christian I also lost disastrously against Sweden at Brunkeberg, which was a huge blow to the union. The war should just be beginning around this point.



Denmark was numerically inferior against the rebels, but their troops were not poorly armed peasants, so it seems possible that Denmark could win against Sweden here with some minor changes
What would the consequences of a Danish victory be, do you imagine?
 
What would the consequences of a Danish victory be, do you imagine?
Definitely better control over the union, since Brunkeberg was a major turning point in Danish power over Sweden. Royal power had a huge collapse here, since Sten Sture became the de facto ruler/king of Sweden. This ofc lead to increased Swedish desire for autonomy and now they had a framework for how it could come about and clear evidence for pro-independence factions that they could take on the union forces. Prevent the Danish failures here and the union will remain much stronger. Not only does it take a big chunk out of the framework for non-union rule in Sweden, but several pro-independence leaders will likely be punished here and lose land/life, which will lead to more Pro-union control of the land. Also, the Oldenburg rulers will get a support boost, since they haven’t failed majorly here. If the failures in Hemingstedt are avoided some years later, then the Kalmar Union should be in a much better place

@Milites @Jürgen @Atterdag @Zulfurium @Bastiram @Gabingston do you have additions or corrections here?
 
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Definitely better control over the union, since Brunkeberg was a major turning point in Danish power over Sweden. Royal power had a huge collapse here, since Sten Sture became the de facto ruler/king of Sweden. This ofc lead to increased Swedish desire for autonomy and now they had a framework for how it could come about and clear evidence for pro-independence factions that they could take on the union forces. Prevent the Danish failures here and the union will remain much stronger. Not only does it take a big chunk out of the framework for non-union rule in Sweden, but several pro-independence leaders will likely be punished here and lose land/life, which will lead to more Pro-union control of the land. Also, the Oldenburg rulers will get a support boost, since they haven’t failed majorly here. If the failures in Hemingstedt are avoided some years later, then the Kalmar Union should be in a much better place

@Milites @Jürgen @Atterdag @Zulfurium @Bastiram @Gabingston do you have additions or corrections here?
what if Sture ends up killed at Brunkeberg (no idea if he was there, but let's say he was)?
 
@Nuraghe from the German wiki article on the Danish-Swedish War of 1470-1471 re: the final peace treaty

However, despite extensive Danish concessions to Sweden's independence and special rights, the negotiations, in which the Pope also became involved, were delayed by the Swedish side until Christian finally died in May 1481 without returning to Sweden.

So, firstly, would Paul II have the same interests as Pope Sixtus? And what exactly was Sixtus' involvement?

@BlueFlowwer
 
what if Sture ends up killed at Brunkeberg (no idea if he was there, but let's say he was)?
If he is killed (he was a leader at the battle) but the rebellion still wins, I could see his cousin Nils Sture take the leadership. He was also present at the battle. He might be succesful in setting up Sweden in a similar way to Sten.

If sture (or both Stures) are killed and Christian crushes the rebellion, I would imagine that he’d increase his landholdings in Sweden, since Sten had no children, and his sister and her infant son is in a bad position to fight for it. Nils’ son is a minor too, so it’d be difficult to fight for the whole Sture inheritance. Christian could also give land to pro-union Swedish nobility to increase their power in Sweden. He and Dorothea might afterwards try to increase Danish power in Sweden? A good start would be to try and create some loose overall laws binding the three realms closer together, which could be forced through now with him being succesful even though it’s a bit against earlier agreements. With no succesful rebellion, there is also less of a succesful framework for future rebellions and how to lead Sweden more independently afterwards, since Karl Knutson’s earlier rule was more unstable


 
@Nuraghe from the German wiki article on the Danish-Swedish War of 1470-1471 re: the final peace treaty



So, firstly, would Paul II have the same interests as Pope Sixtus? And what exactly was Sixtus' involvement?

@BlueFlowwer



unfortunately, doing some research I was unable to understand what Sixtus actually wanted to achieve in proposing himself as an intermediary between the Danish crown and the Swedish rebel party, it was probably something to do with the archbishopric of Uppsala, which was affected by the pontiff's policies , given that in 1477 Sixtus IV issued a papal bull which authorized the creation of Uppsala University ( the first university in all of Scandinavia ) the choice of this location for the university derives from the fact that the local archbishopric had been one of the most important to Sweden proper since Christianity spread to this region in the 9th century, and also from its centrality in regional trade routes, the bull granted the university its corporate rights, among the most important being that in which the the same freedoms and privileges as the University of Bologna are granted ( i.e. the right to establish the four traditional faculties of theology, law ( Canon and Roman law ), medicine and philosophy, and to award baccalaureate, master's, license and doctorate diplomas , to conclude the Archbishop of Uppsala was also appointed rector and was responsible for maintaining the rights and privileges of the university and its members, another thing I managed to find was Christian's participation in the 1475 Holy Year pilgrimage I in the city, which also served as a meeting place to conclude the concordat with Sixtus IV ( it was his second official visit to the city, after that of the previous year ) with the aim of improving his relations with the ecclesiastical hierarchy of his kingdom, and obtain permission to found a university in Copenhagen ( which happened in 1479 )

unfortunately I have not found anything else regarding the relationship between Scandinavia and the Papacy
 
The Triple Crown
@King of Danes @Milites @Jürgen @Atterdag @Zulfurium @Bastiram @Gabingston my attempt to write for Denmark

Soundtrack: Niels Gade - Gefion, op. 54 [1]

11 October 1471

*Brunkeberg* *we see the battlefield strewn with corpses of the slain* *Danish soldiers are moving among the bodies and putting any enemy combattants out of their misery*
*cut to a tent* *King Christian of Denmark, Norway, and sometimes, Sweden, is sitting there when a man with pale blond hair is brought in*
Christian: *looks at the blond man* *we see he's missing his front teeth [2]* well, Herr Nils, your cousin is dead, and you are soon to join him...do you wish to depart this life with such a stain as rebelling against your king on your immortal soul? Or do you wish to depart it in peace? I don't need my chaplain to tell you where your brother has already ended up.
Nils Bosson Sture: *grimacing in pain* there is no stain on my soul, sir. I shall depart this life in peace, knowing that I have done my duty to both my nation and my people.
Christian: *half amused* what nation is that that I do not rule? You are a rebel, and you have incited rebellion against your lawful king-
Sture: by no Swedish law.
Christian: we agreed with the late King Carl that whosoever of us lives longer, he shall succeed [3]
Sture: but King Carl had no son when he made that agreement
Christian: and what makes you believe that King Carl's son will survive any longer than his brothers [4]? Nevertheless...perhaps...had you lived...you should've gone to England. No doubt they would've appreciated your...stubborness and defiance...there. After all, you have killed more Swedes in your quest to remove me than you have killed Danes.
Sture: Sweden will not remain at heel, Christian. We are not Holstein or Schleswig that yip at your heels like dogs and come when you call-
Christian: nor will I treat you like dogs that have bitten me, as you so rightly deserve.

December 1471

*Stockholm* *King Christian rides in triumphal procession through the streets, followed by his nobles and knights* *penants with the three crowns flutter on the tips of lances*
*cut to the Storkyrkan where we see the Archbishop of Uppsala, Jakob Ulfsson [5], placing the crown on a kneeling Christian's head [6]*
*cut to the coronation banquet at the Stockholm City Hall [7]*
Christian: *raises his hand for silence* we are much warmed by your reception of us after this most...unhappy time. We are touched by the displays of loyalty to us and ours. However...it has come to our attention that things are not as they should be.
*murmuring*
Christian: we do not mean the urgings and conspirings of the Totts and the Bondes and, dare we say, the Stures. But rather, that we have heard complaints that not only fair Stockholm, but also the great market towns of our kingdom, are obliged to choose such men as are inimical to not only our rule, but to good governance. We speak of that these...evil councillors...are loyal to the Hansa, to the emperor, even to our brother [7] rather than being of good, loyal, local stock.
*few hasty glances around the hall* *murmuring intensifies*
Christian: The mayors and aldermen would never wish for Sweden's lords and councils to come to the aid or rescue of the cities, since for such a thing to happen would jeopardize the power they have wrongfully obtained and the corruption that they are so mired in- like pigs swimming in their own filth. This is not only an insult to us but also an insult to our most beloved realm of Sweden [9] since they will gladly risk the lives and property of our most loyal citizens in order to prevent themselves from being removed.
*several nods from the murmuring hall* *several worried glances*
Christian: it is our hope, that, now that we are able to put this...unhappy tumult behind us, and that no more will they stand in the way of either our expression of love for this favoured kingdom of ours, or that they will continue to endeavour at such foreign schemes against us.
*pan out as we see several men cheering* *others are more reserved at the speech*

*cut to Copenhagen* *Christian I steps ashore on the quayside to be met by a man in black*
Man: *bows* sire, I am sorry to trouble you with such unfortunate news.
Christian: what is it?
Man: His Highness...your newborn son...he *swallows* has died.
Christian: *looks up at sky* God has granted me a great victory and taken my son from me before I ever met him...I should gladly exchange the former to keep the latter

*fade to black*

[1] admittedly not contemporary, but I struggled to find any works from the period (or even associated with the period), and Gefjon/Gefjun is associated with the whole Kalmar Union apparently.
[2] Christian I sustained this injury at Bunkeberg OTL
[3] this was agreed at Halmstadt in 1450 already
[4] Carl II/VIII Bonde had four sons who died in infancy
[5] he was opposed to the Stures and his appointment saw the passing over of a Bonde candidate. So...while this would not necessarily equal that he's a Christian-loyalist, he has no reason to object to the creation.
[6] I have no idea if Christian was crowned as king of Sweden at any point. But I could see him going for it- if a pared down ceremony cobbled together in haste to emphasize his position.
[7] no idea where the official residence was, since Tre Kronor was only from Gustav Vasa's time
[8] Christian II had removed his brother, Gerhard the Pugnacious, from his duties as count of Oldenburg for conspiring against him in 1469
[9] these were complaints that were levelled OTL as well- that most city councils/mayors in Sweden were foreigners- Christian's use of the rhetoric questioning their loyalty to the crown (describing them as agents of the Hansa, the emperor or his brother) as well as making them "agents provacateurs" of enemy powers is him appealing to the "patriotic" streak of some rebels (like Sture had). It makes them feel as though they've been "heard", even if he doesn't necessarily plan to do anything about them [10]
[10] ISTR reading that even by the time of Gustaf Vasa, most government posts were entrusted to Germans simply because there were no Swedes capable of running the bureaucracy.
 
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Loved the Danish update! Let’s keep the Kalmar dream alive! Your version of Christian I is probably a bit more competent than otl was with that speech (although it’s possible that Dorothea sent him some notes. She really was the more competent one of them), but it’s very cool! I like that you can see some proto Christian II ideas with him! :)
*Bunkeberg*
Brunkeberg ;)
Christian: *looks at the blond man* *we see he's missing his front teeth [2]* well, Herr Sture, your brother is dead, and you are soon to join him
Hah! I love that you included this injury ttl too, but for Sture! Nils Sture is his cousin though ;)
*cut to Copenhagen* *Christian I steps ashore on the quayside to be met by a man in black*
Man: *bows* sire, I am sorry to trouble you with such unfortunate news.
Christian: what is it?
Man: His Highness...your newborn son...he *swallows* has died.
Christian: *looks up at sky* God has granted me a great victory and taken my son from me before I ever met him...I should gladly exchange the former to keep the latter

*fade to black*
And nothing of value was lost. You don’t know how big a bullet you’ve dodged, Christian
[1] admittedly not contemporary, but I struggled to find any works from the period (or even associated with the period), and Gefjon/Gefjun is associated with the whole Kalmar Union apparently.
Hmmm, I honestly can’t come up with one either, I must admit
[7] no idea where the official residence was, since Tre Kronor was only from Gustav Vasa's time
There was an older castle there before Tre Kronor, but it suffered severe burns in the early 1400s. I am unsure if that castle was known as Tre Kronor too though
Poor christan. Hope he maintains the union and has more sons
Poor Christian.

Is Frederick the son who died?
Actually, it’s better for Christian that there’s only one son. His wife insisted that Frederik got the bulk of Slesvig-Holsten after Christian I died, which created all sorts of troubles later for Christian II. Here, Denmark and the duchies stay together and no annoying cadet branches are created (for now). Hopefully, without the precedent here, the duchies are kept united and with the crown later so no independent power base is created for younger sons. You could argue that the treaty of Ribe calling Slesvig-Holsten “forever undivided” legitimizes this
given Dorothea's age (born in 1430-1431), I doubt there'll be more unless she dies
Probably not. Frederick seems to have been a “going out of sale” pregnancy before menopause
yup. I was backwards and forwards on whether to let him die or just be born a daughter. Coin toss decided the fate of the Kalmar Union
No matter what a better fate than otl
Hoping for a new, young and fertile bride for him soon then
Nah. Dorothea is pretty cool and Christian doesn’t need more kids
Then let's pray that john makes it
He’s 15 at this point and soon able to have kids on his own here. Maybe he gets a Yorkist bride as was discussed otl
 
Christian: *looks at the blond man* *we see he's missing his front teeth [2]* well, Herr Sture, your brother is dead, and you are soon to join him...
Obviously it’s up to you, but last names aren’t used in Sweden in this era. Herr (first name) would be more in line, but then again they wouldn’t speak English either so it’s not a big deal.

*Stockholm* *King Christian rides in triumphal procession through the streets, followed by his nobles and knights* *penants with the three crowns flutter on the tips of lances*
*cut to the Storkyrkan where we see the Archbishop of Uppsala, Jakob Ulfsson [5], placing the crown on a kneeling Christian's head [6]*
I’m not sure if Christian would want a second coronation after already having had one in 1457, sure it signals that the king is back and in charge, but it also sort of signals that his previous deposition was legitimate and as such that future ones could be too. Making the conditions of the 1457 coronation stick would be great since it includes the recognition of John as his heir in Sweden.

Other than that, good. I think Christian will likely work as hard at curbing Swedish autonomy as he did Norwegian, riding the wave of his victory to switch up lands and lensmen as he pleases, placing foreigners and loyalists in important positions. I don’t see him dealing with the core of the Swedish issue, but he certainly has a good chance at preparing for the next big rebellion, I’m guessing we’ll see a big one at the latest around 1500.

Christian’s otl pro-Hansa stance isn’t necessarily a bad thing when it comes to keeping Sweden in line, since the Hanseatic connection is important to the Swedes too.

Removing Frederick has interesting implications for the future of the Oldenburgs. The main line might not survive past the mid 16th century if Hans and C2 procreate as per otl.

Overall I’m happy to see C1 get some play, he’s an underrated oldeburger imho.
 
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