The year is 1791. After the first Nootka Convention ended in crisis, British captain George Vancouver is sent to the Pacific Northwest to explore and assert Britain’s right to colonize the region. The Nootka Crisis was a cold conflict between Britain and Spain, who both claimed the Pacific Northwest as their rightful territory. George Vancouver was to survey the landscape (naming the major mountains and geographic features after members of his crew), find navigable rivers into the continental interior, and find restitution for the territories that Britain perceived to have been illegally taken from them by Spain. Tension was high, with both sides having impounded trade ships and seized thousands of pounds of furs and other goods from one another. Vancouver’s mission was paramount to settling the tension, which in our timeline was resolved by both sides backing away from the region.

In this alternate timeline, Vancouver’s ship, the HMS Discovery, sinks off the coast of the Pacific Northwest shortly after the unsatisfactory end of the first Nootka Convention. No one knows what happened to the ship, but Spain moves to assert their claim over the territory. Britain blames Spain for sinking their expedition, and the Nootka Crisis goes hot. This is now the Nootka War.

Bourbon Spain joins Revolutionary France in this alternate version of the War of 1812 (but earlier; we will call this conflict the Nootka War or possibly the War of 1792). There was an active American trader and explorer presence in the region; the newborn USA may get dragged into this conflict as a result. This takes place before the XYZ Affair, the Quasi-War, or the Reign of Terror, which leaves the young America much more inclined to support the French. This would be certain if Britain arms the Native Americans like they did in our timeline. A joint Spanish-American invasion of Canada would be attempted, with the Spanish and French fleets (and their Caribbean colonial possessions) suffering catastrophic losses from the Royal Navy.

The French army would still be pretty disorganized from the recent French Revolution; this takes place before they were galvanized by the Duke of Brunswick’s declaration to restore Louis. France will lose any land battles in Europe as a result if they even attempt a campaign in Europe. The war may also spill over into Britain’s colonial holdings in India; they were already fighting wars with the local Mysore and Marathas around this time in our timeline, so these conflicts may start slightly earlier and become part of the larger global conflict.

Where do you see this war going, who would win, and how does this effect the ensuing decades?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
I'm always up for a discussion of this topic. Glad to see somebody writing about it!

Bourbon Spain joins Revolutionary France
Revolutionary France, under its National Convention, as a Constitutional Monarchy joining its ally Spain in this war is not guaranteed - in OTL it warned Spain to not count on French support---it is only a possibility, although a very interesting one!

the newborn USA may get dragged into this conflict as a result.
....possible, based on regional interests, and paper alliance ties with France.

This takes place before the XYZ Affair, the Quasi-War, or the Reign of Terror, which leaves the young America much more inclined to support the French.
Agree with this, though maybe not the "much" before the "more". Point remains - The French King still has his head, Lafayette is still happy, Franco-American relations are still unspoiled by anything.

This would be certain if Britain arms the Native Americans like they did in our timeline.
Not certain, even if possible. As SecState, Jefferson may advocate for this, but President Washington was not a reckless man. I also believe the USA got a rude lesson in its military weakness this year (1791) with St. Clair's defeat at the hands of Blue Jacket's Lenape/Shawnee Amerindians routing a Legion of the United States force.

A joint Spanish-American invasion of Canada would be attempted, with the Spanish and French fleets (and their Caribbean colonial possessions) suffering catastrophic losses from the Royal Navy.
The French army would still be pretty disorganized from the recent French Revolution; this takes place before they were galvanized by the Duke of Brunswick’s declaration to restore Louis. France will lose any land battles in Europe as a result if they even attempt a campaign in Europe.
I think these two military evaluations may be putting the thumb on the scale a bit to Bourbon-screwery. The British certainly had the strongest fleet in the world, but together the Bourbon fleets could be a significant force, and the purging of the French naval officer corps and discipline had not really started. France had not been under any blockades for years, had some naval swagger from victories in the previous war despite losing at the Battle of the Saintes, and was doing some vigorous world sailing with the Perouse voyage. The French Army, while not not levee'd en masse and not willing to enforce the King's will against the people had still benefitted from recent technical improvements in artillery. Although I'm not sure whom they would wish to fight on the continent if they are fighting Britain in league with Spain. The contrasting experiences of their last two wars, the ARW and 7 Years War, should have taught them that when fighting Britain, France is more successful and loses less when it gives Britain and its Empire its full attention and shuns land alignments and land enemies. Although of course it would teach that war with Britain is *always* expensive.
 
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