A very radical and very unlikely outcome as the Hadiths are a big portion of what will become Shariah law and were early Islam a massive incentive to just make up random Hadiths to justify certain rulings and imperial power. Paradoxically the first three or so Caliphs were anti-Hadith in the respects that they opposed the collection and writing down of Hadiths (there’s actually a Hadith narrated as from the Prophet being against the writing down of Hadiths) but that was only since the Sahaba/Companions could use their closeness to the Prophet as justifications for rulings
As time went by and more people could claim a legible relationship to Companions or the Students of Companions, Hadiths will spread so as to emphasise and guide certain political/power ambitions.
I actually read an interesting paper from Joshua Little that the Hadith for Aisha’s age was likely fabricated by her great grand-nephew while competing with Shi’ites who possibly may have fabricated the age for Ali’s wife to claim a sort of iconic mystic virginal aura related to Mary, mother of Jesus.
It’s easy to make widespread and overreaching claims of how Islam will evolve centuries or millennia from now based on how the current evolution of Islam was based on Islamic laws based on Hadiths etc etc. But that kind of unfocused shotgunning doesn’t really inform us with much.
It’s difficult to envision Quranism becoming a major tradition because all the power brokers have a vested interest in either the Hadith and the majority of the outcasts who could become Hadith Rejectors/Quranists will end up either Sunni or Shia depending on whoever is dominant.
Depends on how Quranism becomes a major faction, tbh. The Kharjites being more Quranist is the obvious PoD since they had some radical subgroups within them who were supposedly Quranist. But they’re also OTL kinda got taken out as the guys too radical to be accepted by the other outcasts. The establishment being more Quranist is possible but the incentives of Hadiths as a source of prestige and legitimacy become really useful once the original movers and shakers of Islam have all become deceased.
I can see it being possible that Quranism becomes more popular but it’s the sort of thing that needs a good PoD to discuss because this is a really vague question.
en.wikipedia.org